75 Million Download Predictions

Posted by Asbjoern Sloth ... on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 15:47Personal | Spreading Firefox

Due to the fact that the download count isnt linear. I have began storing my predicts every night, and created some linear regression on top of that.

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Asbjørn Sloth Tønnesen

Firefox Statistics


Asbjoern Sloth Toennesen's blog | login or register to post comments | 5195 reads
Congratulations
Submitted by sergio_br on Tue, 07/26/2005 - 15:21.

Thanks to this friend for his graphs.
Now the goal is 100 thousands !!!
It will be a bit party !!!!

Towards 100 million FFs Celebration

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make a chart of IE
Submitted by Mariana1970 on Tue, 07/26/2005 - 14:39.

How about a chart showing the date that IE users get a clue and switch?

Agree with that, it will be very interesting to see a chart with that information...

car insurance crm software

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New Graph?
Submitted by Ken Saunders on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 23:38.

Nicely done. How about a chart showing the date that IE users get a clue and switch?

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I suggest you switch the axes
Submitted by on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 19:12.

I suggest you switch the axes round because graphs that point groundward never look good in my book:)

- Ian

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Looks like Firefox is startin
Submitted by LinuxGold on Thu, 07/21/2005 - 12:37.

Looks like Firefox is starting to decline.

Look: http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp
Power to People, Linux is here.

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1.0.5 and 1.0.6
Submitted by Asbjoern Sloth ... on Fri, 07/22/2005 - 11:40.

Please, take a look at the source for this graph, then you will see that the reason for this "jump" is the FF 1.0.5 and FF 1.0.6 release. but it seems like the predictions have been some kind stable the last couple of days.

Another reason could be the change in the feed last week, which made the counter raise about 150k in just 5 minutes, due to the removal of the timezone information, which made 10 hours diffence to my script.

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Asbjørn Sloth Tønnesen
Firefox Statistics

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i am just wondering if counte
Submitted by silence.hr on Sun, 07/24/2005 - 12:07.

i am just wondering if counter works for BT downloads and other sources.....

My site with Firefox and Thunderbird banner offcourse. :D

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Not Necessarily
Submitted by Keough Rhino on Thu, 07/21/2005 - 19:03.

There was quite a fevered discussion about this already. See the comments under this post to see the truth behind W3School's change in numbers.

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Done
Submitted by Asbjoern Sloth ... on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 19:36.

Done

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Asbjørn Sloth Tønnesen
Firefox Statistics

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superb! Ian smiles at jus
Submitted by on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 19:45.

superb!

Ian smiles at just how clever Asbjørn Sloth Tønnesen is

- Ian

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hang on, thought just in...
Submitted by on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 19:18.

hang on, thought just in...

Would it be cool to turn this into a fun SFX competition people could state the date and time that the target will be reached.

When it is obvious the target is going to happen on a given day over time you could show another graph plotting the hours instead of days.

Feel free to use this link if you wish to source as good as live count.

http://www.ianhayward.com/ffcounter

- Ian

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hm
Submitted by Paeniteo on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 16:20.

Uhm, do I read it correctly that you expect it to hit 75 million at 25/07?

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No, ...
Submitted by Asbjoern Sloth ... on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 17:06.

No, currently 21th, but as you se on the graphs, the 1.0.5 release boosted the download rate. Normally the dates shouldn't look like a rollercoster, 1.0.5 was release the day after I started saving the estimates.

The plotted date is a result of a linear regression on the download graph (the green line). The place there this line hits the target (eg. 75 millions). My feeds estimates are based on the trend line for the download graph. I have saved the download count every five minutes since shortly before the 50 millions milestone in late April.

The new prediction graph, is based on the nightly estimates from the download graph / feed. So actually its a linear regression applied to a linear regression.

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Asbjørn Sloth Tønnesen

Firefox Statistics

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No, he thinks that there will
Submitted by MattsProjects.net on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 16:31.

No, he thinks that there will be 75 million today... which is probably not going to happen :-/

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No, 21th July currently
Submitted by Asbjoern Sloth ... on Mon, 07/18/2005 - 17:11.

No, not to day. In the bottom of the graph it says Thursday 21th July, but I don't think thats the case either because the graph might need a little bit of time af the 1.0.5 release, before it would be able to consider reliable.
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Asbjørn Sloth Tønnesen
Firefox Statistics

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